Winning the Hardware Software Game Winning the Hardware-Software Game - 2nd Edition

Using Game Theory to Optimize the Pace of New Technology Adoption
  • How do you encourage speedier adoption of your product or service?
  • How do you increase the value your product or service creates for your customers?
  • How do you extract more of the value created by your product or service for yourself?

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gig economy

  • The Future of Jobs

    The future of jobs is a serious concern.

    The most popular opinion I’ve seen is that the answer is more education. Consider, though, that we are in a period in which historically high levels of the population have some amount of postsecondary education. Yet, less than half the population (about 42%) has at least an associate’s degree, and only about a third of the population has at least a bachelor’s degree. How much higher is it realistic to think these levels can actually go? Not to mention that student debt has reached massively unsustainable levels ($1.3 trillion).

    So then what about the other half of the population?

    I recently did an analysis of changes in employment by firm size over the past few decades. My analysis showed that

    • Increasing percentages of employees have been employed in large firms, at the expense of employees in small firms.
    • New firm creation has increasingly come from openings of smaller firms, while consolidation has been rampant among the largest firms.
    • The economy has become less dynamic than it was during the 1990s, with relatively greater decreases in job activity at smaller firms.

    Taken overall, the data are consistent with economic/market conditions that

    • Are less hospitable to firms overall, and
    • Favor small firms for new innovations, but large firms for continued market success.

    Factors consistent with this environment include

    • More regulations, capture by special interests, and/or uncertainty over-all that inhibit business activity;
    • Regulations, capture by special interests,  and/or uncertainty that favor large firms over small firms (e.g., Obamacare, bank regulations that favor large and/or less risky loans over small/more risky loans, minimum wage laws, etc.);
    • Bureaucracy in larger firms that prevents new ideas from developing and/or gaining traction; and