Michigan Cannabis Sales
Written on 10 August 2025
by Ruth Fisher, PhD
Michigan provides cannabis sales and volume data, so I thought I’d see what the data had to say. For background, Michigan legalized adult use cannabis on November 6, 2018, and first sales began in December 1, 2019.
Medical vs. Adult Use Sales
From Figure 1,
- The medical market peaked in Jul-2020 at $52 M in sales, 8 months after adult use sales began. During that same month that medical sales peaked, adult use sales ($57 M) surpassed medical sales. Interesting coincidence.
- The adult use market grew for 43 months (Dec-2019 – Jul-2023) at an average monthly growth rate of 8.9%, after which the market plateaued at about $270 M per month, where it’s remained for the most recent 23 months (Jul-2023 – Jun-2025).
- The adult use market peaked in Aug-2024 at $294 M, but then over the next 6 months dropped 18% to $241 M in Feb-2025, before rebounding to the previous $270 M level. What’s going on here?
Figure 1
From Figures 2 and 3,
- Total flower dollar sales dropped during the Aug-2024 – Feb-2025 period by 18.2%.
- Total pounds of flower remained steady, increasing about 0.5%.
- The price per pound of flower dropped by 18.6%.
- Total flower dollar sales rebounded in Mar-2025, as the price stabilized at the Feb-2025 low.
So the drop in sales between Aug-2024 and Feb-2025 was due to price declines, without any real change in sales volumes.
Figure 2
Figure 3
As illustrated in Figure 3, prices were declining for the 11 months prior to Aug-2024 (Sep-2023 – Aug-2024). However, prices dropped almost twice as fast between Aug-2024 and Feb- 2025 (3.5% per month) as they did between Sep-2023 and Aug-2024 (2.0% per month).
As additional background information, in Aug-2024, Ohio started selling adult use cannabis. Ohio is a border state with Michigan (Figure 4, in case you’re as geographically-challenged as I am), and there was speculation that Michigan’s sales – especially those for border dispensaries – would take a hit once Ohio opened up its own markets. While a few dispensaries in Michigan near the Ohio border reported sales drops in August, sales in Michigan actually increased from the previous month, suggesting that Ohio’s opening didn’t impact Michigan much. An important contributor to the continued robust sales in Michigan, despite the opening of the Ohio market, was the large price differential: “An ounce of flower costs about $250 in Ohio, while it cost an average of $80 in Michigan in August.”[1]
Figure 4
Returning to the drop in prices, the patterns beg several questions.
- Why did prices drop so much during the Sep-2023 – Feb-2025 period?
The large drop in prices during the period was primarily due to severe oversupplies of flower, as cultivators flooded the market, leading to intense competition and price drops, as supply greatly exceeded demand: “The industry is approaching a ‘saturation point where new dispensaries that start are cutting into the business of other dispensaries,’”[2] Over the course of the period, businesses faced shrinking margins in the maturing market, as prices hit historic lows, leading to multiple business closures.[3] The faster drop in prices during the latter part of the period could have been due to businesses competing to offload inventory in the oversupplied market.
- Why did prices stabilize thereafter?
Prices presumably stabilized as struggling growers exited the market or scaled back operations, reducing the oversupply that had driven the price drops.[4],[5]
- Why did volume sales increase after the period, despite no continued price declines?
Volume sales increased after February 2025, as the low prices made cannabis more affordable, which attracted a broader consumer base and boosted overall demand.[6], [7]
Adult Use Sales by Product Category
Michigan defines the following product categories:
- Flower
- Shake/Trim
- Concentrate: Includes, e.g., shatter, wax, budder, live resin, rosin, distillate, and oils
- Inhalable Compound Concentrate: Includes, e.g., infused pre-rolls, moonrocks, and tarantulas
- Vape Cartridge
- Infused-Edible
- Infused Non-Edible Solid: Includes balms, patches, ointments, and salves
- Infused Liquid: Includes beverages
- Infused Non-Edible Liquid: Includes lotions, creams, and oils
From Figures 5 and 6,
- The share of flower and shake/trim sales have been slowing decreasing over time, from over 59% of the sales in Aug 2020, to 50% of sales most recently (Jun 2025).
- Infused pre-rolls have grown in share over time, while the shares of all other product categories have decreased over time.
Figure 5
Figure 6
Points to Ponder
Peak Medical: Michigan’s medical market peaked 8 months after adult use sales began. The peaking of the medical market shortly after adult use markets open up, would seem to be the norm. In contrast, Ohio, whose adult use market opened up just about a year ago, showed peak medical sales almost 9 months before adult use was legalized (Figure 7). In Ohio, it looks like the medical market had maintained a stable plateau for several years before decreasing as adult use cannabis was legalized.
It would make an interesting study to compare cross-state patterns in medical use markets after opening up to adult use.
Figure 7
Market Saturation: The adult use market grew for 43 months before plateauing, reaching market saturation, at least until further price drops or new products cause the market to further expand. What cross-state patterns should we expect to see in the length of time it takes state markets to reach saturation?
- As cannabis becomes more normalized, we might expect it to take less time for markets to mature. That is, it seems reasonable to think that as cannabis becomes more accepted nationally, then once a new state opens up, there should be less hesitancy by new consumers to enter the market.
- On the other hand, there are large cultural differences across states which, would might still prevent the speeding up of market saturation. Cultural differences could also lead to differences in levels of market saturation, that is, the prevalence of use across local populations. (For more on this, see my previous blog, Causes of Cross-State Differences in Legal Market Cannabis Sales.)
- At the same time, the speed at which markets reach saturation also depend on the regulatory environment. Michigan did not limit the number of growers or dispensaries in the market,[8] which would lead to a faster roll-out and market saturation than, say, New Jersey, which has strictly controlled the number of licensed growers, leading to much more controlled supplies.[9]
It would make an interesting study to compare rollouts across states to see what the big factors are that determine time to reach market saturation.
Sales by Product Category:
- I have been expecting flower sales to drop as a percent of total market sales as markets mature and draw on larger populations of (i) people who are new to cannabis, and (ii) medical users. However, flower has remained an incredibly robust form of use. I think has to do with its (i) widespread accessibility, (ii) low price, and (iii) unlimited product variety.
- It’s interesting to see how quickly the infused pre-rolls category is growing, where it’s either directly (by cannibalizing sales) or indirectly (by growing faster) taking market share from all other product categories.
References
[1] Roberts A. Michigan marijuana sales increase as Ohio joins the recreational cannabis market. Detroit Free Press. 2024 Sep 16.https://www.freep.com/story/news/marijuana/2024/09/16/michigan-cannabis-sales-recreational-marijuana-legalization-ohio/75193904007/
[2] Hinkley JA. Michigan marijuana market cratering, amid oversupply, ‘difficult market’. Bridge Michigan. 2025 Jul 18.https://bridgemi.com/business-watch/michigan-marijuana-market-cratering-amid-oversupply-difficult-market/
[3] Burns G. Michigan marijuana faces ‘year of reckoning’ in 2025. M Live. 2025 Feb 18. https://www.mlive.com/cannabis/2025/02/michigan-marijuana-faces-year-of-reckoning-in-2025.html
[4] Burns G. Michigan marijuana faces ‘year of reckoning’ in 2025. M Live. 2025 Feb 18. https://www.mlive.com/cannabis/2025/02/michigan-marijuana-faces-year-of-reckoning-in-2025.html
[5] Neavling S. Cannabis giant plans to close 20 dispensaries in Michigan, citing harsh market conditions. Detroit Metro Times. 2025 Jul 2. https://www.metrotimes.com/weed/cannabis-giant-plans-to-close-20-dispensaries-in-michigan-citing-harsh-market-conditions-39844522
[6] Flora Growth. X. 2024, Oct 3. https://x.com/floragrowthcorp/status/1841899516867367113?referrer=grok-com
[7] Michigan Cannabis Sales. Headset. 2025 Jul. https://www.headset.io/markets/michigan
[8] Kariuki L. What Are the Cannabis Licensing Requirements in Michigan? (2025). My Cannabis. 2023 Sep 4. https://www.mycannabis.com/what-are-the-cannabis-licensing-requirements-in-michigan/
[9] Israel S. With cannabis cultivator cap lifted, growers face New Jersey’s challenges. MJBizDaily. 2023 Mar 16. https://mjbizdaily.com/with-cannabis-cultivator-cap-lifted-growers-face-new-jersey-challenges/