Category Gains and Losses

Subcategory Gains and Losses

New Job Categories

Conclusions

 

 

By 2000 much outsourcing and automation had already taken place. So a comparison of how private (i.e., non-government) jobs have changed between 2000 and 2015 should provide a better sense of where things are headed in the future than would a comparison of jobs in 2015 with those from an earlier time.

The BLS provides job counts for the US by year and by private (i.e., non-government) Occupational Code, which sorts jobs into “major,” “minor” and “broad” categories. After perusing the data and considering the classifications provided, I decided to create my own job categories and subcategories that I thought were more meaningful to the way I’d like to consider the information. From here on, when I refer to categories and subcategories, I’m referring to the categories I created, not those used by the BLS.

One important caveat to the analysis: The analysis includes only those jobs captured by the BLS. There is reason to believe that there are a nontrivial number of private jobs that are not being captured in the BLS data. For example:

• According to one source, as of Oct 2015, Uber had “327,000 active drivers on the road in the U.S.” Considering that the BLS reports 180,960 Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs in 2015, it is clear that the BLS is not capturing Uber drivers. And there are many other gig jobs currently in the economy, most of which are probably also not being captured. See, for example, “Top 100 On Demand Jobs Like Uber And Sites Like Airbnb.”

• There are a lot of small producers (see, for example, Jeffrey Sparshott, “Big Growth in Tiny Businesses” in the economy, many of whom are likely not captured by the BLS.

• The shadow economy (jobs not reported to the government to avoid taxes and/or regulations) has been growing. By definition, these jobs are not being captured by the BLS. See, for example, Brad Plumer, “The $2 trillion shadow economy is the recession’s big winner.”

Category Gains and Losses

Figures 1A and 1B display (i) share of total private employment by major job occupation for 2000 and 2015 (left-hand axis) and (ii) percentage change in jobs during the period (right hand axis). Figure 1B excludes small categories contained in Figure 1A so as to provide more detail regarding total employment and changes in employment for categories with large numbers of jobs.

Using the same sorting of job categories as in Figure 1A, Figure 1C displays (i) job gains and losses by major job occupation between 2000 and 2015 (left-hand axis) and (ii) real average wages for jobs gained between 2000 and 2015 as compared with average wages for jobs lost (right-hand axis).

Figure 1A

(Sorted by Category Percentage of Total Employment)

 

Figure 1B

(Sorted by Category Percentage of Total Employment)

 

Figure 1C

(Sorted by Category Percentage of Total Employment)

 

Figures 1A, 1B, and 1C indicate that

• Business activities constitute the largest share of private jobs in the economy, but it’s relative size has decreased between 2000 and 2015. The focus in Business activities is shifting away from Production, Construction, and Office Administration and towards Sales, where areas of job gains are lower paying than areas with job losses.

• Medical and Health Occupations contain large and growing shares of employment, where areas of job gains are higher paying than areas with job losses.

• Food Services Occupations is large and growing shares of employment, but in slightly lower wage areas.

• Transportation Occupations are a large but shrinking share of employment.

• Education, Financial Services, and Computer Services Occupations employ moderate, but growing shares of employees, where positions with gains have higher average wages than those in positions with losses.

• Personal Services and Art & Entertainment Occupations employ small, but quickly growing, shares of employees, and in positions with higher average wages than those in positions with losses.

Figure 2 displays (i) employment (i.e., total number of jobs) by major occupation for 2000 and 2015 (left-hand axis) and (ii) percentage change in number of jobs during the period (right hand axis).

Figure 2

(Sorted by Percentage Change in Employment)

 

The categories with the largest percentage of job gains between 2000 and 2015 (green line in upper-right-hand part of Figure 2) went to occupations in

• Petroleum: 78% job growth, from 52,600 in 2000 to 93,740 in 2015.

• Animal (Pets): 76% job growth, from 248,830 in 2000 to 437,050 in 2015.

• Personal (Services): : 65% job growth, from 1,939,040 in 2000 to 3,205,740 in 2015.

The job categories with the largest percentage of job losses between 2000 and 2015 (green line in lower-left-hand part of Figure 2) went to occupations in

• Production: -31% job growth, from 6,749,920 in 2000 to 4,667,430 in 2015.

• Machine (Operators): -30% job growth, from 4,894,130 in 2000 to 3,440,340 in 2015.

• Electronics: -29% job growth, from 932,900 in 2000 to 661,770 in 2015.

 

Subcategory Gains and Losses

Subcategory Gains

Figure 3 displays job gains and losses by major occupation between 2000 and 2015, sorted by job gains.

The job gains (losses) for an occupation are calculated as the sum of job gains (losses) across subcategories with net job gains (losses) between 2000 and 2015. So what we have is a comparison of the magnitudes of job gains for subcategory winners and job losses for subcategory losers, as an indicator of the dynamism of net job creation and destruction within each occupation.

Figure 3

(Sorted by Job Gains)

 

The number of jobs created between 2000 and 2015 were largest for occupations in

• Medical & Health: Gained 3,830,610 jobs during the period.

• Food: Gained 2,834,750 jobs during the period.

• Sales: Gained 2,700,460 jobs during the period.

• Business: Gained 2,058,360 jobs during the period.

• Personal (Services): Gained 1,509,270 jobs during the period.

• Education: Gained 1,473,240 jobs during the period.

Figures 4 and 8 provide more detail for the occupations with the largest job gains during the period.

Figure 4

(Sorted by Job Gains)

 

The Medical & Health Workers subcategories with the biggest job gains are those for

• Nurses: Gain of 956,690 jobs between 2000 and 2015.

• Health (Aides, Educators, Nutritionists, etc.): Gain of 806,160 jobs between 2000 and 2015, where jobs subcategories with gains are higher paying than subcategories with losses.

The Food Workers subcategories with the biggest job gains are those for

• Fast Food: Gain of 1,056,520 jobs between 2000 and 2015 in low paying job subcategories.

• Food Servers (Waiters, Bartenders, etc.): Gain of 804,670 jobs between 2000 and 2015, where job subcategories with gains are lower paying than subcategories with losses.

• Cooks: Gain of 537, 240 jobs between 2000 and 2015, where jobs subcategories with gains are slightly higher paying than subcategories with losses.

The Sales Workers categories with the biggest job gains are those for

• Customer Service: Gain of 688,100 jobs between 2000 and 2015 in relatively low paying jobs. The description for Customer Service jobs is as follows:

Interact with customers to provide information in response to inquiries about products and services and to handle and resolve complaints. Excludes individuals whose duties are primarily installation, sales, or repair.

• Retail Sales: Gain of 647,830 jobs between 2000 and 2015, , where jobs subcategories with gains are lower paying than subcategories with losses. The description for retail Sales jobs is as follows:

Sell merchandise, such as furniture, motor vehicles, appliances, or apparel to consumers. Excludes "Cashiers".

The Business Workers categories with the biggest job gains are those for

• Secretary: The Secretary category contains two subcategories, with BLS descriptions and job counts provided below (see Figure 5 for job counts). Wages for Executive Secretaries are significantly higher than wages for Secretaries.

Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants:

Provide high-level administrative support by conducting research, preparing statistical reports, handling information requests, and performing clerical functions such as preparing correspondence, receiving visitors, arranging conference calls, and scheduling meetings. May also train and supervise lower-level clerical staff. Excludes "Secretaries".

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants:

Perform routine clerical and administrative functions such as drafting correspondence, scheduling appointments, organizing and maintaining paper and electronic files, or providing information to callers. Excludes legal, medical, and executive secretaries.

Figure 5

 

• HR (Human Resources): Gain of 462,660 jobs between 2000 and 2015, where subcategories with job gains are lower paying than categories with losses. A closer examination of job description in Figure 6 indicates that the growth in HR is due to increases in the number of people employed as Human Resources Specialists:

Perform activities in the human resource area. Includes employment specialists who screen, recruit, interview, and place workers.

An increase in HR Specialists is consistent with

1. Greater turnover of employees and/or
2. Greater use of temporary/seasonal workers.

Figure 6

 

The Personal Services Workers category with the biggest job gains is that for

• Personal Care Aides: Gain of 997,950 jobs between 2000 and 2015 in low paying jobs:

Assist the elderly, convalescents, or persons with disabilities with daily living activities at the person's home or in a care facility. Duties performed at a place of residence may include keeping house (making beds, doing laundry, washing dishes) and preparing meals. May provide assistance at non-residential care facilities. May advise families, the elderly, convalescents, and persons with disabilities regarding such things as nutrition, cleanliness, and household activities.

The Education Workers category with the biggest job gains is that for

• Substitutes: Gain of 626,750 jobs between 2000 and 2015, where Substitutes earn less than most of the other jobs in the Education category:

Teach students in a public or private school when the regular teacher is unavailable.

As seen in Figure 7, Substitute Teachers were broken out into their own category in 2012, after having grown substantially between 2009 and 2010.

Figure 7

 

The subcategory occupations with the biggest job gains between 2000 and 2015 are summarized in Figure 8.

Figure 8

 

Looking at gains and losses from a relative (percentage) change, rather than an absolute change, Figure 9 presents the sub-subcategory occupations with the biggest percentage of job gains during the period.

Figure 9

 

Subcategory Losses

Figure 10 displays job gains and losses by major occupation between 2000 and 2015 (same as in Figure 3), sorted by job losses.

Figure 10

(Sorted by Job Losses)

 

The number of jobs lost between 2000 and 2015 were largest for occupations in

• Business: Lost 2,910,610 jobs during the period.

• Production: Lost 2,091,840 jobs during the period.

• Machine (Workers): Lost 1,510,720 jobs during the period.

• Transportation: Lost 952,710 jobs during the period.

• Construction: Lost 926,370 jobs during the period.

Figures 11 and 12 provide more detail for the occupations with the largest job losses during the period.

Figure 11

(Sorted by Job Losses)

 

The Business Workers subcategories with the biggest job losses are those for

• Secretary: See Figure 5.

• Clerks: Loss of 701,400 jobs between 2000 and 2015, where subcategories with gains pay less than categories with losses.

• Information Processing Workers: Loss of 487,050 jobs between 2000 and 2015, where subcategories with gains pay more than categories with losses.

The Production Workers subcategories with the biggest job losses are those for

• Assemblers and Fabricators: Lost 313,440 jobs during the period.

The Machine Workers subcategories with the biggest job losses are those for

• Metal and Plastic Machine Workers: Lost 501,470 jobs during the period.

• Textile, Apparel, and Furnishings Machine Workers: Lost 394,750 jobs during the period.

• Postal Service Machine Workers: Lost 208,660 jobs during the period.

The Transportation Workers subcategories with the biggest job losses are those for

• Material Moving Workers: Lost 438,400 jobs during the period.

The Construction Workers subcategories with the biggest job losses are those for

• Construction Trades Workers: Lost 605,140 jobs during the period.

The subcategory occupations with the biggest job losses between 2000 and 2015 are summarized in Figure 12.

Figure 12

 

Looking at gains and losses from a relative (percentage) change, rather than an absolute change, Figure 13 presents the sub-subcategory occupations with the biggest percentage of job losses during the period.

Figure 13

 

 

New Job Categories

Figure 14 presents subcategory occupations that existed in 2015 but not in 2000. Some of the jobs in each of these categories might have existed prior to 2015 but either

1. Had been included in a different (sub)category or
2. Had not been large enough as to have been separately broken out into their own categories.

Figure 14

 

 

Conclusions

1. Overall Biggest Job Gains and Losses

Figure 15 presents the subcategory occupations with the largest job gains and losses between 2000 and 2015.

The subcategories with the largest job gains are in the

• Food Services (lower wage jobs),

• Personal Care Aides (lower wage jobs),

• Medical/Health Services (higher wage jobs), and

• Retails Sales and Services (lower to moderate wage jobs) areas.

The subcategories with the largest job losses are in the

• Production (lower to moderate wage jobs),

• Construction (moderate wage jobs), and

• Business Services (moderate wage jobs) areas.

Figure 15

 

2. Business Occupations

The focus in Business activities is shifting away from Production, Construction, and Office Administration and towards Sales and Employee/Customer-Relations workers.

• Gains in Business Workers come primarily from
  • Secretaries
  • Customer Service Workers
  • Retail Sales Workers
  • HR Specialists

• Losses in Production, Construction, and Office Administration come primarily from
  • Assemblers and Fabricators
  • Metal and Plastic Machine Workers
  • Textile, Apparel, and Furnishings Machine Workers
  • Postal Service Machine Workers
  • Construction Trades Workers
  • Executive Secretaries
  • Clerks
  • Information Processing Workers

3. Medical and Health Occupations

Medical and Health Occupations are large and growing categories of employment, where the largest gains in number of jobs are accounted for by

• Nurses (Licensed and Registered Nurses; Nurse Midwives, Anesthetists, and Practitioners; and Nursing Assistants)

• Health Workers (Practitioners, Aides, Educators, etc.)

4. Food Services Occupations

Food Services Occupations is large and growing category of employment, where the largest gains in number of jobs are accounted for by

• Fast Food Workers

• Food Servers (Waiters, Bartenders, etc.)

• Cooks

5. Transportation Occupations

Transportation Occupations are a large but shrinking category of employment. Losses in employment came primarily from

• Material Moving Workers

6. Education, Financial Services, and Computer Services Occupations

Education, Financial Services, and Computer Services Occupations employ moderate, but growing numbers of employees, where most growth is coming from employment by

• Substitute Teachers

• Accountants

• Software Support

• Computer Support Specialists

7. Personal Services and Art & Entertainment Occupations

Personal Services and Art & Entertainment Occupations employ small, but growing numbers of employees, where most growth is coming from

• Personal Services: Growth in numbers of Personal Care Aides was second only to growth in numbers of fast food workers.

• Art & Entertainment: Half of total growth was accounted for by new jobs for
  • Coaches and Scouts
  • Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers
  • Recreation Workers
  • Public Relations Specialists