• Cigarette Smoking vs. Nicotine Vaping
• Cigarette Smoking vs. Cannabis Use
• Alcohol Use vs. Cigarette Use vs. Cannabis Use vs. Vaping
  • 19 – 30 Year-Olds
  • 35 – 50 Year-Olds

Monitoring the Future (MTF), an organization funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), collecting annual information on substance use in the population. This analysis compares monthly and daily changes in reported adult prevalences of cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and cannabis consumption between the late 1980s and 2023. 

Cigarette Smoking vs. Nicotine Vaping

Tax rates on purchases of tobacco have increased over time, as a means of disincentivizing tobacco use. There have also been increasing restrictions and outright bans on where people are allowed to smoke cigarettes. Furthermore, there have been bans on advertising, together with labeling requirements and public service messages informing consumers about the dangers of smoking.^[1] As seen in the MTF data (Figure 1), all these measures led to a steady decrease in the prevalence of cigarette smoking over time. The rate of decrease was fairly moderate until about 2007, at which time smoking rates took a nosedive. The prevalence of daily cigarette smoking decreased from about 1 in 4 of the adult population in the late 1980s to about 1 in 10 during the mid-2010s… until e-cigarettes (vaping) were introduced. The FDA lobbied hard to classify vaping devices as drug paraphernalia, but lost the battle in 2011, when it started regulating them like all other tobacco use devices.^[2] Soon thereafter, adoption rates increased rapidly. 

For 19 – 30 year-olds, the prevalence of past 30 day vaping nicotine surpassed that for cigarette smoking around 2019 – 2020. For 35 – 50 year-old past 30 day users, however, as of 2023, vapers hadn’t yet caught up to smokers. (MTF only provide data for vaping nicotine within the past 30 days, but not for daily use.)

Figure 1

Cigarette Smoking vs. Cannabis Use

Comparing 30 day use for cigarettes and cannabis (Figure 2), we see the prevalence of cannabis use by 19 – 30 year-olds overtook that of cigarette smoking around 2014, just as states were first starting to legalize adult use cannabis. For 35 – 50 year-olds, the prevalence of cannabis consumers overtook that for cigarette smokers a couple of years later, around 2018. 

Figure 2

Comparing daily use for cigarettes and cannabis (Figure 3), we see that while the surpassing of cigarette smoking by cannabis use occurred in 2014 for monthly 19 – 30 year-old users, that didn’t happened until 4 years later, in 2018 for daily users. A similar delay occurred for 35 – 50 year-olds: while monthly cannabis use overtook cigarette smoking in 2018, the overtake happened 5 years later for daily users, in 2023. 

Figure 3

Alcohol Use vs. Cigarette Use vs. Cannabis Use vs. Vaping

19 – 30 Year-Olds

30 Day Use

Figure 4 presents trends in 30 day use of alcohol, cigarettes, nicotine vaping, cannabis use, and cannabis vaping for 19 – 30 year-olds. Several trends are notable.

Alcohol: The majority of 19 – 30 year-olds use alcohol at least monthly. Monthly use decreased a bit during the late 1980s, but then leveled off to around 65% - 70%, where it’s remained for the past 25 years.

Cigarettes: Roughly 30% of 19 – 30 year-olds smoked cigarettes between the late 1980s and the early-to-mid 2000s, at which point cigarette smoking started to decline relatively rapidly, perhaps bottoming out more recently at just under 10%.

Cannabis: Roughly 15% of 19 – 30 year-olds used cannabis between the late 1980s and the late 2000s, with a slightly increasing trend during the period. Somewhere around 2010, cannabis use started to increase relatively rapidly over the next decade, perhaps topping out more recently at just under 30%.

Vaping: Nicotine and cannabis vaping both began at about the same time with the introduction of vaping devices in 2011. The data suggest both nicotine and cannabis use started increasing at about the same rate during the period of early introduction. However, around 2020, nicotine vaping started becoming slightly more popular than cannabis vaping.

Relative Use: As seen in Figure 5, during the 1990s, there were roughly 5 monthly alcohol users for every monthly cannabis user, but then number of alcohol users per cannabis user started decreasing. By the early 2020s, the number of monthly alcohol users per monthly cannabis user had dropped in half, to about 2.3. As for cigarette smokers, from the late 1980s through the mid-2000s, there were about twice as many monthly cigarette smokers as monthly cannabis users, but over the 20 years since then, cigarette smoking has declined relative to cannabis use, reaching parity around 2014, and continuing to drop. Currently, there are over 3 times as many cannabis consumers as there are cigarette smokers.

Figure 4

Figure 5

Daily Use

Figure 6 presents trends in daily use of alcohol, cigarettes, and cannabis use for 19 – 30 year-olds. Several trends are notable.

30 Day vs. Daily Use: Comparing Figure 4 and Figure 6, until about 2010, while roughly 70% of 19 – 30 year-olds consumed alcohol monthly, only about 5% consumed it daily; that is, roughly 14 times as many people used alcohol monthly as daily. In contrast, roughly 30% of 19 – 30 year-olds smoked cigarettes monthly, while over 20% smoke daily, only a 1.5-to-1 ratio. Similarly about 15% used cannabis monthly, while less than 5% used cannabis daily, a 3-to-1 ratio. In other words, there are way more casual vs. daily alcohol users compared with those for either cigarette smoking or cannabis use. 

Alcohol: Daily alcohol consumption by 19 – 30 year-olds has hovered around 5% since the late 1980s.

Cigarettes: A little over 20% of 19 – 30 year-olds smoked cigarettes daily between the late 1980s and mid-2000s, but then rates plummeted, hitting about 4% by 2023. 

Cannabis: Daily cannabis use increased gradually throughout the period, from about 3% of 19 – 30 year-olds during the late 1980s, reaching about 10% in 2023.

Relative Use: From Figure 5, the number of daily alcohol users to daily cannabis users hovered around 2-to-1 between the late 1980s and early 1990s, then dropped and hovered around parity, before starting a gradual descent in 2013 through 2023, ending at almost 3 daily cannabis consumers for every daily alcohol consumer. Daily cigarette smokers outnumbered daily cannabis consumers by about 9-to-1 during the early 1990s, but then started a precipitous drop throughout the period, reaching parity in about 2018, continuing to drop thereafter to about 0.3 in 2023, that is, almost 3 daily cannabis consumers for every daily cigarette smoker. 

Notice that rates of daily alcohol use and cigarette smoking converged over the period for 19 - 30 year-olds from vastly different levels, while daily cannabis use increased from less than either to greater than both.

Figure 6

35 – 50 Year-Olds

30 Day Use

Figure 7 presents trends in 30 day use of alcohol, cigarettes, nicotine vaping, cannabis use, and cannabis vaping for 35 – 50 year-olds. Several trends are notable.

Alcohol: The majority of 35 – 50 year-olds consumed alcohol at least monthly throughout the period, with the prevalence of monthly use hovering around 70% for most of the period. 

Cigarettes: The prevalence of monthly cigarette smoking dropped in half during the period, from about 20% of 35 – 50 year-olds during the late 1980s to about 10% in 2023.

Cannabis: About 7% of 35 – 50 year-olds consumed cannabis monthly in 2008, with a slowly increasing prevalence, reaching about 10% in 2017. Thereafter, the prevalence of monthly cannabis use started increasing more rapidly, doubling to about 20% in 2023. 

Vaping: Monthly nicotine and cannabis vaping have both remained relatively constant over the 5 year period from 2019 to 2023, at about 4% - 5% of 35 – 50 year-olds vaping nicotine and 5% - 6% vaping cannabis.

Relative Use: As seen in Figure 8, during the 1990s, there were roughly 9 monthly alcohol consumers for every monthly cannabis consumer, but 30 years later, by the early 2020s, that number had dropped by more than half, to about 3.6 alcohol consumers per cannabis consumer. The number of monthly cigarette smokers to cannabis users dropped from about 2.7-to-1 in the late 1980s, reaching parity in 2019, and continuing to drop, to 1-to-1.9 in 2023. 

Figure 7

Figure 8

Daily Use

Figure 9 presents trends in daily use of alcohol, cigarettes, and cannabis use for 35 – 50 year-olds. Several trends are notable.

30 Day vs. Daily Use: Comparing Figure 7 and Figure 9, until about 2010, while roughly 70% of 35 – 50 year-olds used alcohol monthly, only about 9% used it daily, an 8- to 9-times ratio. In contrast, roughly 20%, decreasing to 10%, of this population smoked cigarettes monthly, while about 9% smoke daily, a 1.2- to 1.3-times ratio. And about 9%, increasing to 20%, used cannabis monthly, while about 2%, rising to 8%, used cannabis daily, a 2.6- to 3-times ratio. So then as with 19 – 30 year-olds, significantly more people used alcohol monthly than daily, compared with those for cigarette smoking and cannabis use. 

Alcohol: The prevalence of daily alcohol use hovered around 9% of 35 – 50 year-olds during the entire 2008 – 2023 period. 

Cigarettes: Roughly 15% - 17% of 35 – 50 year-olds smoked cigarettes daily between 2008 and 2011, but then rates dropped thereafter, reaching about 8% in 2023.  

Cannabis: Daily cannabis use increased gradually throughout the period, from about 3% of 35 – 50 year-olds during the late 1980s, reaching about 8% in 2023.

Relative Use: From Figure 8, numbers of daily alcohol users per cannabis consumers dropped from about 3-to-1 in 2008, reaching parity by 2023. The number of daily cigarette smokers also reached parity with the number of daily cannabis consumers by 2023, but whereas daily alcohol consumers started the period at 3-to-1 relative to cannabis consumers, cigarette smoking started at about 7-to-1, that is, rates of cigarette smokers dropped twice as fast during the period as did rates of alcohol consumers.

Is it a coincidence that daily rates of alcohol, cigarette smoking, and cannabis use all converged to about 8% for 35 – 50 year-olds? Recall that daily alcohol and cigarette use converged for 19 – 30 year-olds to 5%, lower than the prevalence of use in 35 – 50 year-olds. The prevalence of daily cannabis use continues to rise for both sets of populations. Will they converge to similar levels?

Figure 9

References

^[1] See, for example, Warner KE. Tobacco Control Policies and Their Impacts. Past, Present, and Future. Annals of the American Thoracic Society. 2013 Sep 3. https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1513/AnnalsATS.201307-244PS

^[2] Historical Timeline of Vaping & Electronic Cigarettes. CASAA. https://casaa.org/education/vaping/historical-timeline-of-electronic-cigarettes/